From: Scott Morris (swm@emanon.com)
Date: Thu Sep 01 2005 - 11:22:44 GMT-3
Dude, if you spent half the time working on the CCIE lab itself, things
would be easier. :)
It's basic business marketing though to realize that the more people you
have out in the workplace certified and/or capable/comfortable with your
products, the more you will sell. Microsoft did this approach a long time
ago. They had some difficulties, but the market still is there. Novell
tried enhancing things a little too late to help them much.
But if you have happy people out in the field, employed and comfortable on
your product line, it's not difficult to see the market benefit here.
So, this is a lesson in belaboring the obvious. Now, what are your trying
to get at, and does it affect anyone movement towards their goal?
Scott
-----Original Message-----
From: nobody@groupstudy.com [mailto:nobody@groupstudy.com] On Behalf Of
Dillon Yang
Sent: Thursday, September 01, 2005 7:27 AM
To: cciein2006@yahoo.com; ccielab@groupstudy.com
Subject: Re: Three Test Minimum?
1. Questionable grading
So many candidates in the list questioned the CCIE lab exam, so, lets
analyze it now.
2. Indubitable facts
2.1. the Quarterly Income Statement of cisco(values in millions),
$5,926 7/31/2004
$5,971 10/30/2004
$6,062 1/29/2005
$6,187 4/30/2005
http://quotes.nasdaq.com/asp/MasterDataEntry.asp?page=full
symbol="csco"
2.2. The Total of Routing and Switching CCIEs(valid):
11228 8/1/2004
11434 11/1/2004
11629 2/1/2005
11701 5/1/2005
12007 8/1/2005
http://www.cisco.com/web/learning/le3/ccie/certified_ccies/worldwide.html
2.3. Gold Certification Requirements: One additional CCIE for each $40
million in annual Cisco revenue(4 CCIE minimum, Add 1 per $40 million in
revenue )
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/learning/le3/le2/le37/le10/learning_certification
_type_home.html
2.4. There is 10 lab exam location all over the world.
http://www.cisco.com/web/learning/le3/ccie/rs/scheduling_lab_exam.html
2.5. The nominal increase is 100 CCIE per month. The number should be
100.8 from 7/14/2004 to 5/13/2005, that is 1008/10month.For the other
track's
sake, 100 is ok.
R&S ccie number date
14645 5/13/2005
14551 4/7/2005
14351 2/19/2005
14251 12/9/2004
14063 11/8/2004
13949 10/18/2004
13746 8/2/2004
13637 7/14/2004
http://www.netmasterclass.net & http://www.cisco.com/"CCIE Verification
Tool"
2.6. There are many trick in real lab exam.(personal experiences)
2.7. The granularity of grading is coarse. Since there are a lot of
noticeable points in a subsection, its score always between 2 and 4.
(personal experiences)
3. Inferences:
3.1. There is relation between the number of CCIE and the Income of
CISCO. The date 8/1/2004 and the date 7/31/2004 are approximately equal,
then we have a compatible point that have a 11228 and a 5926. So, the 6187
has a ratio of 1.044043 to 5926 and the 11701 has a ratio of 1.042127 to
11228. This means that in the 9 months the increases of the CCIE number and
the Income are the same stationary speed, that is about 0.47 percents per
month on average.
3.2. There is a minimum workload of a CCIE complied by cisco. Based on
2.1 and 2.2 and 3.1, we can figure out it by the Quarterly Income Statement
of cisco and the number of CCIE, for example, it equals 5926 millions USD
per 11228 CCIE, i.e. about 5800 USD/CCIE/day. Can we guess that if you can
FINISH the configuration of 5800 USDs of devices for a certain complexity in
a working day, then you are eligible to be a CCIE? In other words, a CCIE
thats annual income is 100K USD earns 274 USD per day, that means the
maintaining fee for cisco products is 274/5800, i.e. 4.72%. If annual 60K,
then 2.83%.
3.3. There is a maximum workload of a CCIE complied by cisco. Based on
2.3, we can figure out 40 million per year is 109589 USD/CCIE/day. i.e.
cisco will not allow any CCIE to finish his job more than 110K USD in a
working day even if he believes he can.
3.4. There is stationary increase in number of CCIE. Based on 2.2 and
3.1, we can figure out the average increase(excluding the invalid) per month
is 11228*0.47%, i.e. 52.6 CCIEs in recent months. That is need by the
increase of Income.
3.5. The pass rate is about 0.08333. The minimum of seats is 4 and the
maximum is 16, say, the average is 8 for the 10 location. The proctors work
5 days per week and the usage of seats may be 70%, then there are
8*10*(30*5/7)*0.7 seats per month, i.e. 1200 candidates per month(We have no
knowledge about the actual candidates per month, it may be from
4seats*10*30*5/7 to 10seats*10*30*5/7 ). So, based on 2.5 and this, the pass
rate is 100/1200, i.e. 8.33%. Or between 100/857 and 100/2142, i.e. 11.7%
and 4.7%. And, the actual number of candidates for CCIE is unknown.
3.6. Obviously, a fine granular grading will figure your image well. Why
not do you select 640*480 resolution for your screen, instead, you prefer
the 1024*768, or more? Because the latter has more detailed information that
can please you. So, based 2.7, the coarse granular grading neglects your
endeavor on many dimensions to lower your scores.
3.7. The more tricks, the more failures. In probability theory, say, the
probability for you to make a successful hit is PT(1) equals 0.95, then the
continuous two successful hit is PT(2) equals 0.95^2 equals 0.90, the PT(3)
equals 0.86, the PT(5) equals 0.77. For CCIE, you fail now. For example,
1st,you are asked to make a OSPF virtual-link between R2 and R3, its so
simple and you have probability of 95% that makes you happy.
Then, 2nd, the R3 reaches the area 0 and area 23, the R2 reaches the area 23
and the area 2. Now you are not asked to do OSPF-VL, but it implies this.
The probability changes to 90% but you still happy.
Then 3rd, the R3 and R2 reach the area 0 and there is no routing protocol
between them. You know the default route is not allowed, the probability
descends to 86% now, but you finally done it by PBR.
As far as OK, 4th, the R3 and R2 reach the area 0 and there is no routing
protocol between them, you are not allowed to use default route and
policy-based routing. Now the probability is just 81%, God help you, there
is a tunnel to fit in with this.
If, 5th, the R3 and R2 reach the area 0 and there is no routing protocol
between them, you are not allowed to use default route and policy-based
routing, no new address can be added. The probability sunk into 77%, you
realize actually that the cisco' market is shrinking and the CCIE is more
than what it need, the only thing you can do is stalking out of the exam
room without a glance, or you have to pray like this:
Our Lord which art in San Jose, Hallowed be thy name. Thy market come, Thy
will be done in ipv6, as it is in ipv4. Give us this day our final number.
And forgive us our Lab negligence, as we forgive your IOS negligence. And
lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from trap: For thine is the
market, and the power, and the glory, for ever. Amen.
My conclusion is the CCIE lab exam grading has been manipulating to be fit
in with the Income of products. Open your eyes when you take part in the lab
exam. Does cisco need so many CCIE? Can the market of cisco support a 100K
salary? Would cisco like to pay a maintaining fee of 4.72% for its routers
and switches?
Rational reply and opposite opinion will be appreciated. Offensive one will
be rejected.
regards
dillon
----- Original Message -----
From: <cciein2006@yahoo.com>
To: <ccielab@groupstudy.com>
Sent: Monday, August 29, 2005 9:38 PM
Subject: Three Test Minimum?
>I find it kind of odd that most of the CCIE's on this board and the one's I
>know personally have all taken the test a minimum of three times before
>passing.
> Being that Cisco is making $1250 a pop (not including the revenue from
> written exams and books) and with the high failure rate being part of the
> allure of attaining CCIE status, could Cisco be purposely failing people
> on their first few attempts?
>
> _______________________________________________________________________
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