From: watsonf (watsonf@xxxxxxx)
Date: Tue Jan 09 2001 - 01:14:06 GMT-3
Interesting comment.
So what is the next "thing" after CCIE? I got my R&S, and am interested in
the Design. But where to afterwards? Stagnation is deterioration.
FW
CCIE #6561
----- Original Message -----
From: "Mask Of Zorro" <ciscokid00@hotmail.com>
To: <franjime@cisco.com>; <ccielab@groupstudy.com>
Sent: Monday, January 08, 2001 4:40 PM
Subject: Re: CCIE Growth rate..... (long)
> Frank,
>
> I think you'll find that the number is pretty consistent over the past 3
> years or so, at around 1100 per year.
>
> In response to Chuck Church's post below - This is a trend in the
industry.
> It started in the early 90's with the CNE. Armies of people were going
after
> the CNE 'cause it meant a good job with great pay. Then, as the market
> became saturated, the pay rates began to fall.
>
> But just over the horizon was the MCSE, with the promise of new
> opportunities and even bigger bucks. So the armies moved from the Novell
> camp to the MS camp - and the market welcomed them. But as more and more
> people passed all their tests and were issued their MCSE certs, the market
> was again saturated, and rates began to fall.
>
> So the armies began scouting again for another camp with the same promise
of
> riches and glory. They found that camp - Cisco, with its newly introduced
> CCNA certification - and so they moved. They studied... they bought used
> routers on ebay... they bought their Todd Lammle books, and they got their
> CCNA. BUT, no riches and glory were to follow. For those, they found that
> they must reach higher - to the CCNP and beyond, to the CCIE. Only there
> would the find the rewards they sought. And so they march onward and
upward,
> buying even more routers on ebay and even more books from Todd Lammle...
and
> Jeff Doyle, and Tom Thomas, and Bruce Caslow, and on and on and on. They
> march even to this day. But their plan is flawed.
>
> Yes - it is flawed. The market can only accept a small number of CCIE's.
> There is simply not the demand to reward entire armies of CCIE's as the
> current crop are rewarded now. With CNE's and MCSE's it was easy - there
> were literally millions of servers and desktops worldwide, and they all
> needed certified support personnel. In every office building there was
room
> for dozensof CNE's or MCSE's. Not so with Cisco routers...
>
> Buildings, campuses, and even whole enterprises can make do with one or
two
> Cisco soldiers. Even in cases where there is a demand for more bodies,
only
> one or two need be CCIE, the rest need only be NP's or even NA's -
destined
> to earn less than...
>
> But the army marches on, storming camp Cisco. The waiting list for lab
dates
> gets longer and longer as more and more soldiers approach. Cisco
recognizes
> that the flood can do no good for the value of the CCIE cert as the market
> will become saturated much more quickly than with the other camps, so it
> fights back. They continually raise the bar, making it increasingly more
> difficult to reach the top.
>
> The written exam changes. The lab content changes. Tracks split into
> specialities (R&S, WAN, Dial, Design), and then are collapsed and rebuilt
> (Service Provider IE). All to keep the numbers down and the demand high.
>
> Yet still they come - WE come, because you and I are marching too! Where
> will the end begin? 10,000? 15,000? surely not higher... What will we do
> then? Where will we march?
>
> Somewhere else, of course! I have been marching since '92 and I have no
> plans of stopping any time soon. Don't worry about CCIE growth. Worry
about
> what you will do with your number, and what you will do next...
>
> Z
>
>
> >From: Frank Jimenez <franjime@cisco.com>
> >Reply-To: Frank Jimenez <franjime@cisco.com>
> >To: ccielab@groupstudy.com
> >Subject: CCIE Growth rate.....
> >Date: Mon, 08 Jan 2001 15:40:02 -0600
> >
> >If anyone is interested, I'd be happy to collect CCIE dates from anyone
who
> >wants to send me their CCIE # and their date attained.
> >
> >I'll compile the information into a graph that I'll post out on the web.
> >(Maybe Paul can put it in the GroupStudy site?) Some simple
extrapolation
> >ought to show how fast the CCIE community is growing.
> >
> >If you're interested, send me your CCIE number and date attained :
> >franjime@cisco.com. To keep down traffic, DON'T send it to the ccielab
> >group mailing list....
> >
> >Frank Jimenez, CCIE #5738
> >franjime@cisco.com
> >
> >
> >At 01:29 PM 01/08/2001 -0800, you wrote:
> > >Let's not forget that these numbers are worldwide. How many new
doctors
> >and
> > >lawyers do you think are produced by schools every year worldwide? You
> >can
> > >bet that it is more than 1200. This industry is growing faster than
the
> > >medical or Law industry. Don't worry guys.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >-----Original Message-----
> > >From: Chuck Church [mailto:cchurch@MAGNACOM.com]
> > >Sent: Monday, January 08, 2001 10:23 AM
> > >To: ccielab@groupstudy.com
> > >Subject: RE: CCIE 6662, y--> CCIE numbers
> > >
> > >So it's safe to say that about 1200/year are currently being given out
> > >(although the word 'given' hardly applies here). I thought a more
> >realistic
> > >number would be maybe 800/year. I guess with the rapidly decreasing
> >value
> > >of the CNE and MSCE, people had to turn elsewhere. That's why I'm here
> > >after all!
> > >
> > >Chuck Church
> > >CCNP, CCDP, MCNE, MCSE
> > >Sr. Network Engineer
> > >Magnacom Technologies
> > >140 N. Rt. 303
> > >Valley Cottage, NY 10989
> > >845-267-4000 x218
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >-----Original Message-----
> > >From: Kinton Connelly [mailto:kinton@oldmedia.com]
> > >Sent: Monday, January 08, 2001 12:18 PM
> > >To: Chuck Church; ccielab@groupstudy.com
> > >Subject: RE: CCIE 6662, y--> CCIE numbers
> > >
> > >
> > >14 new CCIE's over the past 4 days isn't a whole lot - there are 12
> > >locations world-wide where you can take the lab. Let's figure 12
> >locations
> > >x 4 pods per location x (4 days total/2 days per attempt) = 96
attempts,
> >82
> > >failures, 14 passes.
> > >
> > >That's about a 15% passing rate. Those are pretty rough numbers and an
> > >extra pod thrown in here or there will really skew the results, but you
> >get
> > >the idea.
> > >
> > >Kinton
> > >CCIE #5867
> > >
> > >P.S. Hey...that makes me wonder...I passed 8 months ago. That's about
246
> > >days. There have been 809 new CCIE's since then - that's about 3.3 new
> > >CCIE's per day. (rough numbers again, so take them with a grain of
salt -
> > >they've added more pods and lab locations since last May).
> > >
> > >
> > >At 1/8/01, Chuck Church wrote:
> > >>Does that really means there's been 14 or so CCIEs given out in the
last
> > >>week? I thought this thing was hard :)
> > >>
> > >>Chuck Church
> > >>CCNP, CCDP, MCNE, MCSE
> > >>Sr. Network Engineer
> > >>Magnacom Technologies
> > >>140 N. Rt. 303
> > >>Valley Cottage, NY 10989
> > >>845-267-4000 x218
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>-----Original Message-----
> > >>From: Tyler Pomerhn [mailto:tpomerhn@cisco.com]
> > >>Sent: Monday, January 08, 2001 9:49 AM
> > >>To: John Bays; ccielab@groupstudy.com
> > >>Subject: RE: CCIE 6662, youngest in Asia Pacific, first for new
> > >>millenium.
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> > Maybe I'll be CCIE # 6666 ;-)
> > >> > (Hey... what's the extra 6 for?)
> > >> > 3 days and a wake-up.
> > >>
> > >>Too late... I just passed Saturday, and I'm #6676. :)
> > >>
> > >> >
> > >> > John
> > >> >
> > >> > At 10:31 PM 1/4/2001 -0500, you wrote:
> > >> > >I was the youngest Marine in my platoon.
> > >> > >
> > >> > >-----Original Message-----
> > >> > >From: James Wilson [mailto:jamewils@cisco.com]
> > >> > >Sent: Thursday, January 04, 2001 10:26 PM
> > >> > >To: ccielab@groupstudy.com
> > >> > >Subject: CCIE 6662, youngest in Asia Pacific, first for new
> >millenium.
> > >> > >
> > >> > >
> > >> > >Hi All,
> > >> > >
> > >> > >A big thanks to everyone on this list for helpful in formation.
> > >> > >
> > >> > >As of yesterday I am the youngest CCIE in Asia Pacfic (Sydney).
> > >> > >
> > >> > >Cheers.
> > >> > >
> > >> > >---
> > >> > >James Wilson - CCIE #6662
> > >> > >
> > >> > >Global On Site Service - APT
> > >> > >Phone : +61-2-8448-7919 / +61-417-452-806
> > >> > >Pager : +61-2-9430-6381
> > >> > >James Wilson
> > >> > >CCIE #6662
> > >> > >
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