From: Dillon Yang (dillony@gmail.com)
Date: Sat May 14 2005 - 09:09:51 GMT-3
CCIE program and GroupStudy:
This critique is written by Dillon Yang for the sake of CCIE Lab exam,
that will be opened to GroupStudy.com.
1 No valid solution for cheating
So far Cisco has not done valid solution for cheating as the CCIE
numbers go like the wind.
1.1 Theoretic analysis
Regarding the scores of any exam, it is subjected to the normal
distribution. For normal distribution, the F(x) indicate the
probability from 0.0000 to 1.0000, the x is from 3.09 to 3.09, for
example, when x is 0, the F(x) that means all probability below 0 is
0.5, and when x is 1.854, the F(x) will be about 0.9682. You can find
the value by a common statistical table.
Dillon can standardization change the scores that is from 0 to 100 to
the x in F(x) by the formula x=(S-u)/b. The u means the average of all
scores, and the b is the something of tolerance. Because the average
of a score must be 50, so Dillon get u equal 50, and Dillon have
3.09=(100-50)/b, so the b equal 16.1813. Now Dillon can get that x
equals 1.854 when the S equals 80, 1.854=(80-50)/16.1813. That means
the 0.9682 of the total candidate will be rejected if Cisco stick to
its rule of 80. Dillon n other words, only 0.0318 of the total
candidates can pass the lab exam if the 80-pass rule is the truth.
1.2 Pratical analysis
Dillon knows a guy passed in 29-Oct-2004 with 14019, and a guy passed
in 5-Apr-2005 with 14539, from the www page of NMC. So in the 157
days, there are 520 CCIE generated. Cisco has 10 lab exam location in
the world, some has 4 seats and some has 8 seats. Assume 6 seats per
location and the proctors work 5 day per week, then there are up to
10*6*157*(5/7) candidates can take a lab exam, that is 6728.571
candidates. So the ratio of pass up to 520/6728.571, that is 0.077282,
more than the theoretic value of 0.0318, for some reasons of holidays
and cancellations, the number will be larger. That fact means that
Cisco has not stuck to its 80-pass rule ,OR there are a lot of
cheating in the lab exam that caused the result is not subjected to
the normal distribution.
But, in the link
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/learning/le3/ccie/certified_ccies/worldwide.html,
you can see that the total of the valid CCIE is 11228 in 1-Aug-2004,
and the total of the valid CCIE is 11701 in 1-May-2005, so there is a
valid increasement of 473 CCIEs (including the invalid CCIE) in the
273 days, so the ratio is 473/(10*6*273*5/7) that is 0.040427 and is
close to the theoretic value 0.0318. Dillon think Cisco DID some
solution to manipulate the ratio to adapt its increasement of Gross
Profit, that was 15.1G$ in 31-Jul-2004, was 13.2G$ in 26-Jul-2003, was
12.0G$ in 27-Jul-2002 (from nasdaq.com) , or the incomes of the valid
CCIEs will be divided into an unreceivable level.
1.3 Where are the cheating from?
From the above link, Dillon can know that the average increasement of
valid CCIE per MONTH in the 273 days are this sequence by descending :
PRC is 12.44, Korea is 4.00, Japan is 3.22, Russia is 1.56, Australia
is 1.11, Canada is 0.89, Singapore is 0.78, Germany is 0.67 and
Switzerland is 0.67. Why the ratio of pass in PRC is so high, since
most of the candidates chose the location Beijing that has only 4
seats and the early date is after 4 months meanwhile the location RTP
or Toyko have vacant seats?
Dillon is in PRC and is receiving some invitions of training vendors
that promised Dillon would pass in one or two attempts by their TRUE
materials. But Dillon is always conceited and want to do it himself
and failed 3 times now, while the laters and the stupids had passed in
their first attempt. Dillon very like to tell you that they have the
true materials at least Dillon saw one of the same topology that was
written before 2002 occur in Dillon's recent real lab exam!
How can they get the materials? Yes, they work like a company. Dillon
f Cisco has only 8 set of lab exam, then they can choose the best ones
of their members to take exams in different days. Dillon f he did it
then he is lucky, if not he'll get the material. Whether luck or not,
they must learn whole the set of lab exam back to study, then just 9
members can make a successful tactic at their first attempt. As the
method of company their member is always sharp in real lab exam, so,
they will not be in the same location in the same day! Did Cisco or
anyone mention that only one seats booked while the other three seats
vacant on many continuous valid lab date? Something like this :
Choose one of the following available dates or search for more dates.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
01-Nov-2005 ( 3 seats available)
02-Nov-2005 ( 3 seats available)
03-Nov-2005 ( 3 seats available)
04-Nov-2005 ( 3 seats available)
07-Nov-2005 ( 3 seats available)
It is the tactic that prevent their members from fighting with each
other for they really sharp. Do you ever imagine it?
2 Quirky Wording
Maybe Cisco noticed that something abnormity, and adopted the
nonsensical wording. Cisco maybe believe that the changing wording can
hold out the cheating without essential modification. Yes, essential
modifications will be more expensive than only changing wording, but
we are not all the master degree of literature, even if we are not all
that english is his mother tongue. Remember? Dillon n the written
exam, the candidate will have more 30 minutes if his mother tongue is
not english while the american can get only 2 hours. Why not in lab
exam?
The wording is really efficient for those cheating, and for those that
not cheating, too. Did Cisco ever think about that if an engineer
designs or implements a network for his clients, his client maybe ask
unintelligible questions or requirements but he will explain it
throughout with common wording to help the engineer to finish the job.
Now, CCIE lab exam gradually becomes a english exam, not technique
exam, Dillon MHO.
2.1 Real value
After so many cheating in CCIE lab exam, Dillon don't believe any
more that CCIE is worthy for me to give up my job, it had been my
pursuing business. You know, Dillon can always hear somethings like
"versions" between this and those, etc. They even have not graduated
and are able to be success at their first attempt! Dillon heard two
training vendors declare that they had exported more than 200 CCIEs in
last two years.
3 Lab condition
In Dillon's recent attempt, the links to commSrv broke three times and
all candidates have to interrupt labbing.
The date of location in hongkong is very irregular and out of control.
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