From: Chuck Church (cchurch@xxxxxxxxxxxx)
Date: Tue Jan 09 2001 - 02:15:23 GMT-3
Well as long as Cisco doesn't break down and make the CCIE more attainable,
I'm happy with 1100 per year. So there'll be 20,000 CCIEs 10 years from
now. By then, we'll be IP addressing toasters, TVs, and your pets. Plenty
of demand for network people. I personally feel that Microsoft made the
MCSE easy as a marketing tool. To move into Novell's territory, they needed
to claim they had tons of people certified to install it. Sure, there's
paper CNEs out there, but I think paper MCSEs are way more plentiful. Cisco
doesn't need a marketing tool. They pretty much own the networking world.
After R&S, I'm thinking maybe the security track would be highly valuable,
given that big companies are hacked all the time. There's always the AVVID
Cisco products as well. Now, back to that lab preparation...
Chuck
-----Original Message-----
From: watsonf [mailto:watsonf@gte.net]
Sent: Monday, January 08, 2001 11:14 PM
To: Mask Of Zorro; franjime@cisco.com; ccielab@groupstudy.com
Subject: Re: Next Step?
Interesting comment.
So what is the next "thing" after CCIE? I got my R&S, and am interested in
the Design. But where to afterwards? Stagnation is deterioration.
FW
CCIE #6561
----- Original Message -----
From: "Mask Of Zorro" <ciscokid00@hotmail.com>
To: <franjime@cisco.com>; <ccielab@groupstudy.com>
Sent: Monday, January 08, 2001 4:40 PM
Subject: Re: CCIE Growth rate..... (long)
> Frank,
>
> I think you'll find that the number is pretty consistent over the past 3
> years or so, at around 1100 per year.
>
> In response to Chuck Church's post below - This is a trend in the
industry.
> It started in the early 90's with the CNE. Armies of people were going
after
> the CNE 'cause it meant a good job with great pay. Then, as the market
> became saturated, the pay rates began to fall.
>
> But just over the horizon was the MCSE, with the promise of new
> opportunities and even bigger bucks. So the armies moved from the Novell
> camp to the MS camp - and the market welcomed them. But as more and more
> people passed all their tests and were issued their MCSE certs, the market
> was again saturated, and rates began to fall.
>
> So the armies began scouting again for another camp with the same promise
of
> riches and glory. They found that camp - Cisco, with its newly introduced
> CCNA certification - and so they moved. They studied... they bought used
> routers on ebay... they bought their Todd Lammle books, and they got their
> CCNA. BUT, no riches and glory were to follow. For those, they found that
> they must reach higher - to the CCNP and beyond, to the CCIE. Only there
> would the find the rewards they sought. And so they march onward and
upward,
> buying even more routers on ebay and even more books from Todd Lammle...
and
> Jeff Doyle, and Tom Thomas, and Bruce Caslow, and on and on and on. They
> march even to this day. But their plan is flawed.
>
> Yes - it is flawed. The market can only accept a small number of CCIE's.
> There is simply not the demand to reward entire armies of CCIE's as the
> current crop are rewarded now. With CNE's and MCSE's it was easy - there
> were literally millions of servers and desktops worldwide, and they all
> needed certified support personnel. In every office building there was
room
> for dozensof CNE's or MCSE's. Not so with Cisco routers...
>
> Buildings, campuses, and even whole enterprises can make do with one or
two
> Cisco soldiers. Even in cases where there is a demand for more bodies,
only
> one or two need be CCIE, the rest need only be NP's or even NA's -
destined
> to earn less than...
>
> But the army marches on, storming camp Cisco. The waiting list for lab
dates
> gets longer and longer as more and more soldiers approach. Cisco
recognizes
> that the flood can do no good for the value of the CCIE cert as the market
> will become saturated much more quickly than with the other camps, so it
> fights back. They continually raise the bar, making it increasingly more
> difficult to reach the top.
>
> The written exam changes. The lab content changes. Tracks split into
> specialities (R&S, WAN, Dial, Design), and then are collapsed and rebuilt
> (Service Provider IE). All to keep the numbers down and the demand high.
>
> Yet still they come - WE come, because you and I are marching too! Where
> will the end begin? 10,000? 15,000? surely not higher... What will we do
> then? Where will we march?
>
> Somewhere else, of course! I have been marching since '92 and I have no
> plans of stopping any time soon. Don't worry about CCIE growth. Worry
about
> what you will do with your number, and what you will do next...
>
> Z
>
>
> >From: Frank Jimenez <franjime@cisco.com>
> >Reply-To: Frank Jimenez <franjime@cisco.com>
> >To: ccielab@groupstudy.com
> >Subject: CCIE Growth rate.....
> >Date: Mon, 08 Jan 2001 15:40:02 -0600
> >
> >If anyone is interested, I'd be happy to collect CCIE dates from anyone
who
> >wants to send me their CCIE # and their date attained.
> >
> >I'll compile the information into a graph that I'll post out on the web.
> >(Maybe Paul can put it in the GroupStudy site?) Some simple
extrapolation
> >ought to show how fast the CCIE community is growing.
> >
> >If you're interested, send me your CCIE number and date attained :
> >franjime@cisco.com. To keep down traffic, DON'T send it to the ccielab
> >group mailing list....
> >
> >Frank Jimenez, CCIE #5738
> >franjime@cisco.com
> >
> >
> >At 01:29 PM 01/08/2001 -0800, you wrote:
> > >Let's not forget that these numbers are worldwide. How many new
doctors
> >and
> > >lawyers do you think are produced by schools every year worldwide? You
> >can
> > >bet that it is more than 1200. This industry is growing faster than
the
> > >medical or Law industry. Don't worry guys.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >-----Original Message-----
> > >From: Chuck Church [mailto:cchurch@MAGNACOM.com]
> > >Sent: Monday, January 08, 2001 10:23 AM
> > >To: ccielab@groupstudy.com
> > >Subject: RE: CCIE 6662, y--> CCIE numbers
> > >
> > >So it's safe to say that about 1200/year are currently being given out
> > >(although the word 'given' hardly applies here). I thought a more
> >realistic
> > >number would be maybe 800/year. I guess with the rapidly decreasing
> >value
> > >of the CNE and MSCE, people had to turn elsewhere. That's why I'm here
> > >after all!
> > >
> > >Chuck Church
> > >CCNP, CCDP, MCNE, MCSE
> > >Sr. Network Engineer
> > >Magnacom Technologies
> > >140 N. Rt. 303
> > >Valley Cottage, NY 10989
> > >845-267-4000 x218
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >-----Original Message-----
> > >From: Kinton Connelly [mailto:kinton@oldmedia.com]
> > >Sent: Monday, January 08, 2001 12:18 PM
> > >To: Chuck Church; ccielab@groupstudy.com
> > >Subject: RE: CCIE 6662, y--> CCIE numbers
> > >
> > >
> > >14 new CCIE's over the past 4 days isn't a whole lot - there are 12
> > >locations world-wide where you can take the lab. Let's figure 12
> >locations
> > >x 4 pods per location x (4 days total/2 days per attempt) = 96
attempts,
> >82
> > >failures, 14 passes.
> > >
> > >That's about a 15% passing rate. Those are pretty rough numbers and an
> > >extra pod thrown in here or there will really skew the results, but you
> >get
> > >the idea.
> > >
> > >Kinton
> > >CCIE #5867
> > >
> > >P.S. Hey...that makes me wonder...I passed 8 months ago. That's about
246
> > >days. There have been 809 new CCIE's since then - that's about 3.3 new
> > >CCIE's per day. (rough numbers again, so take them with a grain of
salt -
> > >they've added more pods and lab locations since last May).
> > >
> > >
> > >At 1/8/01, Chuck Church wrote:
> > >>Does that really means there's been 14 or so CCIEs given out in the
last
> > >>week? I thought this thing was hard :)
> > >>
> > >>Chuck Church
> > >>CCNP, CCDP, MCNE, MCSE
> > >>Sr. Network Engineer
> > >>Magnacom Technologies
> > >>140 N. Rt. 303
> > >>Valley Cottage, NY 10989
> > >>845-267-4000 x218
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>-----Original Message-----
> > >>From: Tyler Pomerhn [mailto:tpomerhn@cisco.com]
> > >>Sent: Monday, January 08, 2001 9:49 AM
> > >>To: John Bays; ccielab@groupstudy.com
> > >>Subject: RE: CCIE 6662, youngest in Asia Pacific, first for new
> > >>millenium.
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> > Maybe I'll be CCIE # 6666 ;-)
> > >> > (Hey... what's the extra 6 for?)
> > >> > 3 days and a wake-up.
> > >>
> > >>Too late... I just passed Saturday, and I'm #6676. :)
> > >>
> > >> >
> > >> > John
> > >> >
> > >> > At 10:31 PM 1/4/2001 -0500, you wrote:
> > >> > >I was the youngest Marine in my platoon.
> > >> > >
> > >> > >-----Original Message-----
> > >> > >From: James Wilson [mailto:jamewils@cisco.com]
> > >> > >Sent: Thursday, January 04, 2001 10:26 PM
> > >> > >To: ccielab@groupstudy.com
> > >> > >Subject: CCIE 6662, youngest in Asia Pacific, first for new
> >millenium.
> > >> > >
> > >> > >
> > >> > >Hi All,
> > >> > >
> > >> > >A big thanks to everyone on this list for helpful in formation.
> > >> > >
> > >> > >As of yesterday I am the youngest CCIE in Asia Pacfic (Sydney).
> > >> > >
> > >> > >Cheers.
> > >> > >
> > >> > >---
> > >> > >James Wilson - CCIE #6662
> > >> > >
> > >> > >Global On Site Service - APT
> > >> > >Phone : +61-2-8448-7919 / +61-417-452-806
> > >> > >Pager : +61-2-9430-6381
> > >> > >James Wilson
> > >> > >CCIE #6662
> > >> > >
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